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When analyzing the 2024 general election, the national media concensus was that voters overwhelmingly rejected incumbent candidates and frequently favored first-time nominees in federal, state and local elections.
The Associated Press wrote that the election was “super bad for incumbents as voters punish them in droves.” The Christian Science Monitor referred to the “bonfire of the incumbents.” And the Pew Research Center called 2024 a “Year of Political Disruption.”
However, while that clearly happened with a few high-profile national and statewide offices, it was not the case with San Benito’s local politics. A Ballotpedia analysis of the election across all 50 states, which includes 7,412 incumbent officeholders, indicates that 95% were reelected, a one-point gain over the 2020 general election and a two-point gain over the 2020 general election.
San Benito County, which votes more conservatively than its coastal neighbors, seemed impervious to the urge to unseat and replace its current legislators and representatives—with the exception of the Hollister City Council race. The defeat of all three incumbents—former mayor Mia Casey and former council members Rick Perez and Tim Burns—is far outside of Ballotpedia’s 86% average win rate for incumbents in local races.
The Hollister incumbents’ defeat was likely less about their incumbency and more the result of voter concerns about housing and traffic, and a heavily funded direct mail campaign. Sitting council-members on the ballot were attacked on these issues in an avalanche of mailers, which were echoed in public statements and on social media posts by local politicians and special interest groups.
BenitoLink investigated four of those fliers in a series of Fact Checks and found them filled with inaccuracies, misleading claims and false statements.
Surprisingly, for an election that saw Republicans make significant political gains across the country, the ongoing shift of San Benito County toward conservative candidates was less apparent in this election than in 2020 or 2022. Except for President-elect Trump’s win, Democratic candidates held their Republican challengers to no more than two-point gains.
Here are some observations about San Benito County voters on the major contests in the last election.
President: Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris/Joe Biden
It is difficult to draw conclusions about shifts in the political dynamic in the county based on the presidential election. Voter turnout between the two general elections dropped substantially—by almost 12 points in the county and by more than 14 points across the state. (As usual, it was higher than in the 2022 off-year general election by 22 points.)
Though Trump did not win in California or San Benito County, he gained substantially over his 2020 results, more than six points in the county and four points across the state.
US Senate: Adam Schiff vs Steve Garvey
This was an “apples and oranges” comparison as newcomer Steve Garvey, a self-described “professional baseball representative” faced off against congressman Adam Schiff for a seat vacated by the death of Diane Feinstein. Garvey had not run for elected office before this race.
Alex Padilla was appointed by Gov. Gavin Newsom to replace Kamala Harris when she assumed the vice presidency. In 2022, Padilla was elected to serve the remainder of her term.
Schiff had a harder job than Padilla when he competed in the 2024 primary, losing over 15 points to Katie Porter and almost 10 to Barbara Lee, winning with just over 32% of the vote. Garvey faced several rivals but the closest anyone came to him was Eric Early, who took 3.3% of the vote.
Still, the numbers did not shift very much from Padilla’s victory two years before. Schiff was two points behind Padilla’s total and Garvey was two points up from Mark Meuser’s loss.
30th California Assembly District: Robert Rivas vs. J. W. Paine
Robert Rivas has been San Benito County’s most consistently successful politician in recent history, averaging 66.9% of the vote in his last four elections, and never failing to secure at least 62% in the county or state. The combination of his favorite-son status and position as the assembly speaker—second-most powerful politician in the state—makes him difficult to beat in the district election.
His contest against J. W. Paine was no exception. Paine did very little campaigning but still scored higher statewide than two of Rivas’ four previous opponents, falling two points behind Stephanie Castro. Again, we see no sea change in this match-up, though Rivas scored a higher percentage of votes than he did against Castro.
Rivas was first elected to the Assembly in 2018 and terms out after 12 years, leaving him potentially eligible for three more elections and six more years of service.
District 18 House of Representatives: Zoe Lofgren vs. Peter Hernandez
The 2020 Census brought San Benito County into the 18th District of the House of Representatives, which it shares with parts of Monterey, Santa Clara and Santa Cruz Counties. The county was previously part of the 20th District, represented by Jimmy Panetta, who succeeded Sam Farr in 2017.
Lofgren faced three primary challengers—Charlene Concepción Nijmeh, Lawrence Milan, Luele N. Kifle—who scraped off almost 16% of the vote in the county primary. However, in the general election, the needle did not move much, with the county and state totals closely matching the 2022 results.
One of the more interesting aspects of the Lofgren/Hernandez race is that, since it takes place over four counties, the regional strength of each candidate can be roughly measured. Lofgren’s winning percentages are shown below.
Hernandez placed almost seven points higher in San Benito County than in the other three. In 2022, he placed over 7.5 points higher in San Benito County than in the other three.
The breakdown by county also shows how little San Benito County impacts the district’s overall vote. In 2024, San Benito contributed only 12.78% to the total, and in 2022, it was only 11.78%.
Hollister City Council
A massive negative campaign marked the Hollister City Council election. In a series of campaign fliers sponsored by their political rivals, Mia Casey, the former mayor, and Rick Perez, the former council member, were accused of pandering to developers.
BenitoLink investigated four of those fliers in a series of fact checks, including Where Did Our Money Go, 20,000 More Houses?, Hollister Guardians stretch the truth again, and Silencing their critics, and found them filled with inaccuracies, misleading claims and false statements.
While some of those responsible for the fliers went as far as protesting our reporting in front of BenitoLink’s office, none of them have ever refuted or disputed any of the facts in those articles.
Because the fliers were paid for by political activist organizations rather than candidates, it is difficult to know precisely how much money was involved. It is clear that the incumbents’ opponents far outspent the sitting candidates.
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