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Part II: Your Vote as Currency
Have you ever looked at your choices in a November General Election and found yourself holding your nose as you voted for the lesser of two evils? This is why the Primary Election is so important. Imagine how great it would be if your choice in November was between good and better! Is it possible that you can help to make that happen? Yes. Every election in which you cast a vote is like an investment in your future and your community’s future.
Your research and your vote hold the greatest value for the local contests such as mayor, supervisor, judge, sheriff, etc. Living in our small county I have had candidates knock on my door as they’re out stumping for votes. I have engaged them, listening and asking questions. I have also found it necessary to phone candidates for specific details about their position on issues that are important to me. If you call a candidate for U.S. Senator you’ll probably reach a campaign volunteer. But if you phone a candidate for county supervisor, or district attorney, and you’re in a county like ours, the candidate will likely answer and be grateful that you took the time to call.
Now let’s look at the 2022 General Election to better understand the impact of your vote on the outcome, using data provided by the CA Secretary of State (see https://www.sos.ca.gov/) and San Benito County Elections (see https://www.sanbenitocounty-ca-cre.gov/cre-home). In a Primary if one candidate receives over 50% then the contest is over. That contest will not appear on the ballot again in November. If no candidate receives over 50% then the top two candidates will continue to November, so the margin of elimination is the difference between second and third places.
The total number of registered voters in California in 2022 was 21,940,274. Of these, 10,933,018, or 49.8%, cast votes for governor. In San Benito County we had 37,735 registered voters of which 19578, or 51.9%, voted. At the state level the candidate totals were as follows:
- Dahle: 4,462,914
- Newsom: 6,470,104
- Winning margin: 2,007,190
For San Benito County:
- Dahle 9,150
- Newsom 10,428
- Winning margin: 1,278
At the state level your vote could have accounted for 0.00001% of the total votes, or 0.00005% of the total margin of victory. But at the county level your vote would have accounted for 0.003% of the total votes, or 0.078% of the margin of victory. Your vote, had the contest been a local race only such as sheriff or district attorney, would have been 500 times more impactful relative to total number of votes, or 1,560 times more impactful relative to the margin of victory. Your vote has roughly 1,000 times more impact on county contests than on statewide contests.
Taking the idea of economics to the Primary level we turn to the 2022 District 1 Supervisor contest. District 1 had 7,641 registered voters, of which 2,880 cast a vote for supervisor. Note the candidates (top 3 vote getters) and their vote totals:
- Kim Hawk 350
- Dom Zanger 801
- Betsy Dirks 896
The separation between second and third place was 451 votes. This is greater than the margins of elimination in both districts 3 and 4, in which the winning candidates garnered over 50% of the vote and averted a showdown in November.
When the top two vote-getters advanced to the November General Election we find total registered voters in District 1 at 7,736, of which 4,590 cast votes in the contest for supervisor:
- Betsy Dirks 2216
- Dom Zanger 2374
Margin of victory 158
Using the same considerations here that we used for local vs. state voter impact we find that your vote would have amounted, in the Primary, to 0.035% of the total votes cast. In the November General Election your vote would have amounted to 0.022% of total votes. That makes your vote 1.6 times more significant in the Primary than in the General Election, relative to total votes. This is like getting a 40% discount on your candidates. Want to skip the Primary and wait for the General Election? Pay full price, please!
Let’s consider one other perspective on the value of your currency. In District 1 in November we had 3,146 people registered who did NOT vote. Given the margin of victory of 158 votes you could say that 158 voters decided the winner for 3,146 who did not participate. That’s leverage of 20:1, which is extremely powerful. If you don’t vote, the leverage works against you. When you vote, you are the leverage.
Your vote is the only currency you have with which to maintain your freedom. Your freedom is for sale in every election (including primaries). Do you believe that no one listens? Call the candidates for city council, for school board, for district supervisor. I think you’ll find you have their ear. If not, you now have additional information about where to direct your vote. Vote in the Primary (March 5 is just around the corner!) to maximize your impact. Vote, and be heard.
Vote, using “currency” that you didn’t know you had!