From Atmospherics Group International:
Governor Jerry Brown has declared a Drought Emergency for CA
KQED NEWS Link; http://blogs.kqed.org/newsfix/2014/01/16/california-drought-update-governor-jerry-brown-declaring-drought-emergency
11 Western States Declared Disaster Areas; USA Today report link; http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/01/16/drought-west-disaster-declarations/4522651/
Record Low Flows in CA Rivers occurring, Record High Temps continue this week, Evapotranspiration drying out the soils and reducing the snowpack.
Observations this morning show the nearest precip to CA is flowing toward the Olympic peninsula, with most of the CONUS very dry. Satellite Imagery this morning shows abundantly clear skies over CA with a few patches of fog in a few of the NW Coastal valleys and a smoke plume flowing over the LA basin. 27 CA Stations recorded RECORD-SETTING HEAT yesterday. 8 SJV AG Stations recorded Critically Low Temps at or below 28° this morning. The big news for the region is the low dewpoints and the RECORD-SETTING warmth for mid January with some records beating the heat wave during the Drought of 1976, as well as setting new ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORDS! The warm temps are due to the NE offshore flow pattern producing strong Santa Ana-type winds across SOCAL, with winds across the Sierra below 10mph. R/humidities have dropped into the single digits and dewpoints have been below zero at many Sierra Stations along with Freezing Levels above 12,000ft. The entire State of CA is parched, covered with 0.2 inch PWAT. Evapotranspiration rates should climb significantly this week, losing 0.1 inch per day or more, due to the afternoon temps reaching into the 70°’s, with 80°’s into the Sierra foothills accompanied with extremely dry air aloft.
24hr Precip Summary highlights to 9am Friday; none
Current Synoptic RAP Charts: The 300mb chart shows High Pressure ridge over the West Coast which is extending northward into the ARCTIC region, while the WPAC shows an impressively strong zonal-type Jet Stream at 170kts screaming eastward at 33N to 160W where it abruptly turns north to go around the High Pressure. The 500mb chart shows the RRR High Pressure ridge weakening slightly with 576dm heights over CA as compared to 582dm heights yesterday. The ridge axis is moving over the West Coast, with weak steering currents aloft over CA. Temps over most of CA at this level of the atmosphere are -13°C. The 700mb Freezing Line runs from northern ID SE to El Paso TX, with +4°C temps over most of CA and +6°C temps over Orange and San Diego Co. The persistently dry PWATs that have plagued CA for weeks continues, with dry air originating from the Great Basin pouring into CA with the entire State of CA covered with 0.2 inch PWAT’s, nose bleeding dryness which extends surprisingly for hundreds of miles offshore. The WCONUS from CO westward for hundreds of miles offshore and southward into Baja and northern Mexico is covered with 0.2 inch PWAT’s …which is remarkable! Dewpoints are in the single digits at many Sierra Stations with Wofford Heights near Lake Isabella reporting 6° dewpoint and 11% R/humidity! With a MSLP of 1034mb High Pressures over SW UT versus 1020mb over the SW Coastal region of SOCAL providing a generalized NE flow pattern at the surface with light winds over the SJV and strong Santa Ana conditions for SOCAL reaching up to 40+mph. Freezing Levels over CENCAL today are up to 12,100ft, 11,600ft on Sat, 11,000ft on Sun, 11,300ft on Mon, 11,800ft on Tue, 11,400ft on Wed. These are very high for mid January!
RED FLAG WARNING issued by SAC, HJO, MRY, LA, for the Sierra/Tehachapi Mts due to strong NE downsloping winds up to 45mph with R/humidities >10% for 8-10hrs producing extreme FIRE DANGER. Santa Ana winds into the LA basin could gust up to 70mph.
New acronym to be used from this point forward in the forecast text discussions for this season; “RRR High Pressure”. The RRR will stand for Ridiculous, Resilient, Resident
FORECAST SUMMARIES
Days 1-7;
Fri, Jan 17th The RRR High Pressure ridge weakens to 576dm heights over the West Coast, while surface temps continue to remain warm, with Record-Setting temps, 70°’s prevalent throughout the SJV, with light winds and frosty mins at the coldest Stations. Meanwhile several disturbances are imbedded within the flow pattern across the WPAC basin veer sharply north near 140W and head due north into southern Alaska. The West Coast of NA and western Canada, however remains bone dry with remarkably low dewpoints and PWAT’s.
Sat, Jan 18th The RRR High Pressure ridge axis shifts inland with a weakening cold front dropping southward into the PACNW with diminishing moisture and intensity. This does bring a slight cooling trend to CA with increased onshore winds initially into the coastal valleys. The SJV temps range in the 70°’s with nightly frost at the colder Ag Stations. Expect more record max temps.
Sun, Jan 19th While the RRR High Pressure maintains its dominance over the West Coast it does continue to weaken, a trough digs southward from the Aleutians down to 30N, then veers sharply north as it hits the ridge at 140W. At the same time a subtropical plume erupts from the ITCZ south of Baja, streaming northward. Temps in CENCAL cool by a few degrees, with light winds. Expect more record max temps.
Mon, Jan 20th The RRR High Pressure ridge re-intensifies to 576dm heights up into OR and builds northward thru Western Canada into the ARCTIC region, as the storm from the Aleutians reaches 140W and is turned abruptly northward taking its heavy rains once again into southern Alaska. Temps over CENCAL mostly into the 70°’s, with mild/dry conditions prevailing over CA with frosty mornings and warm afternoons setting new record temps. Further south the subtropical plume of moisture is traveling northward along the southern Baja coastline. A southerly flow pattern bring heavy rains into the Alaskan panhandle and northern BC, Canada coast from the storm that is weakening out at 140W. Further west an intense storm is crossing the Dateline at 40N which is attached to a long-fetched AR that trails SW into the Indonesian Maritime Continent.
Tue, Jan 21st The RRR High Pressure ridge pushes 576dm heights as far north as southern WA, with the shrinking 552dm Low Pressure storm at 35N 140W blocked from moving eastward by the mega ridge. Further west the larger storm intensifies to a 504dm height, with High Pressure built into Alaska blocking any progression of either storm system. Skies over CA remain fair/mild and dry with continued frosty morning at the cold spots and record-setting heat during the afternoons.
Wed, Jan 22nd The RRR High Pressure ridge shifts slightly inland, while the upper portion of the ridge tilts NW into Alaska. The previously mentioned small disturbance closest to CA, moves NE toward the CA/OR border and weakens. Charts currently show light amts of precip moving into far NORCAL overnight as the system dissipates. Whether this feature is able to penetrate into the ridge is questionable, so therefore the light precip suggested for NORCAL may not materialize and if it does the QPF are very light. Skies over CENCAL remain fair, with frosty mornings in the colder spots and record setting heat during the afternoon.
Thu, Jan 23rd The RRR High Pressure ridge is firmly anchored along the West Coast, extending northward into the ARCTIC region. The minor disturbance departs far NORCAL with questionable impacts, but with clearing skies as what is left of it enters NW NV. Partly cloudy skies over NOR/CENCAL gradually clear. Temps range from frost in the coldest Ag Stations in the morning to the lower 70°’s in the afternoon with light winds. Overnight the mega RRR High Pressure ridge narrows considerably, which draws attention to the eastern downwind flank and its attendant ARCTIC blast reaching further west into MT. A spit flow exists at 140W.
Days 8-16, Long Range into Fantasyland Outlook; Day 8 begins;
Thu, Jan 23rd shows the RRR High Pressure ridge is centered over Juneau, Alaska, the westerlies attempt to undercut the ridge bringing some light warm rainfall onshore over CEN/SOCAL. This feature has a low confidence level. Further west a second disturbance is crossing 140W at a very low latitude, attempting to also undercut the ridge. Partly cloudy skies and a few showers are possible for CENCAL, especially along the coast. Overnight the larger southern storm system continues to dive beneath the ridge.
Fri, Jan 24th shows the RRR High Pressure ridge with 570dm heights from CA northwest to southern Alaska, extending northward into the North Pole region. The downwind flank is carrying an ARCTIC blast into the northern Midwest and Great Lakes, while a minor vort disturbance drops S from southeastern BC, Canada into the OR/CA/NV border region with cold air originating from the Yukon containing a -24°C cold core DRY circulation. Meanwhile the ridge continues to become more narrow, while it still acts as a barrier from southern Alaska southward to Baja. CA remains fair/dry with cooler temps
Sat, Jan 25th shows the RRR High Pressure ridge still anchored over the coast of NA and up into the ARCTIC region. A minor disturbance digs under the base of the ridge west of Baja, with conditions over CA remaining fair/mild and dry with a light NE flow pattern over NORCAL.
Sun, Jan 26th shows the RRR High Pressure ridge weakens further with the 570dm heights dropping south into southern OR, while 576dm heights remain along the SOCAL coast. The flow pattern for CA turns NW with light winds and fair, mild and dry conditions continuing.
Mon, Jan 27th shows the RRR High Pressure ridge rebuilds over CA with 576dm heights covering the western portion of CA, with the flow turning offshore over SOCAL. Conditions remain the same for CA, fair/mild/dry. Moisture riding over the top of the ridge brings some light rains into the WA coast.
Tue, Jan 28th shows the RRR High Pressure ridge intensifying with the 576dm heights covering CA/NV and 582dm heights approaching the SOCAL coast. An offshore NE flow pattern over CEN/SOCAL provides fair/mild/dry conditions.
Wed, Jan 29th shows the top of the RRR High Pressure ridge flattening, which allows rains to spread southward from BC, Canada into WA while CA remains fair/mild/dry. Further west at the Dateline another High Pressure ridge is developing, pushing north into the Aleutians.
Thu, Jan 30th shows the RRR High Pressure once again rebounds full strength, with 576dm heights pushing northward along the CA coast with the ridge extending north into southern Alaska…again. The developing ridge at the Dateline continues to push north into the Bering Sea with a stationary storm system locked into position near 43N 155W. CA remains fair/mild/dry.
Fri, Jan 31st shows the RRR High Pressure ridge maintains its dominance over the West Coast of NA, while the Dateline ridge pushes into the ARCTIC region, which fills the GOA Low Pressure system with lots of cold air. CA remains fair/mild/dry.
Sat, Feb 1st shows the RRR High Pressure ridge intensifying over CA with 582dm heights covering CEN/SOCAL, resulting in record-setting heat…again! The storm track flows into southern Alaska and northern BC, Canada with copious warm rains, while CA remains under fair skies/warm temps and dry conditions.
Sun, Feb 2nd shows the RRR High Pressure ridge continues to intensify over CA and spreads 582dm heights into NORCAL, with continued record-setting heat and fair/dry conditions continuing.
Special Notations; Governor Brown’s Drought Declaration this morning is timely. With the current extended GFS thru Feb 2 showing dry conditions continuing, the situation for the CA water supply is dire. Hopefully, President Obama will also act responsibly and follow Governor Brown’s lead so that Federal Agencies and Aid can be implemented. The warm/dry RRR High Pressure ridge will maintain above normal high temps over a vast region west of the Continental Divide. With most of the CONUS having 0.2 inch PWAT’s, this is about the driest pattern ever seen for a mid winter season for the nation as a whole…quite remarkable. The Record-Setting Heat should continue to occur over a widespread area of CA for the next 5 days as temps reach +15° to +20° above average. The RRR High Pressure remains anchored over the West Coast…builds onshore over the OR/CA border region causing an offshore NE flow pattern with downsloping winds across the Sierra coming down the western flank of the range. The NE flow is a double whammy for an unusual January, because not only does it not supply any moisture but it is removing what little soil moisture there is, with the advection of the dry NE downsloping winds, creating record-setting heat and by also further damaging the dry soil conditions which are now prevalent over the entire State. A strong inversion will also continue to develop in this synoptic pattern resulting in the potential for air quality concerns in the Great Valley. With such dry air in place fog formation should be extremely limited. Stream flows for many CA mainstem rivers are reaching or exceeding RECORD LOW FLOWS for this time of year.
In just the last week, the percent of CA designated in “Extreme Drought” has skyrocketed from 28% to 63%, as the Governor deals with the driest Drought in CA history.
TEMPS
NEW RECORD TEMPS
Station New Record Old Record__
Fresno 71° (Ties) 71° set in 1909 Ties a 105 year old record
Merced 68° 66° set in 2009
Madera 69° 68° set in 2009
Hanford 69° 68° set in 2000
Ukiah 76° 75° set in 1920 Beats a 94 year old record
Redding 80° 77° set in 2009
Red Bluff 80° 78° set in 2009
SAC Dwntwn 71° 68° set in 1991
SAC Exe 69° 67° set in 1991
Stockton 69° 68° set in 2009
San Francisco 72° 71° set in 1991
SFO 73° 69° set in 1991 Ties an ALL-TIME RECORD for January
Oakland Dwntwn 78° 72° set in 2009
OAK 69° 67° set in 2009
Richmond 74° 72° set in 2009
Mt View 73° 71° set in 2009
San Jose 73° (Ties) 73° set in 2009
Gilroy 77° 72° set in 1974
Monterey 78° (Ties) 78° set in 2009
Salinas Airprt 84° 80° set in 2009 Sets a new ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH for January
Burbank 90° 86° set in 1976
Sandberg 65° (Ties) 65° set in 1994 and 1975
Santa Barbara 84° 81° set in 1976
Santa Maria 89° 86° set in 1976 Sets a new ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH for January
Paso Robles 81° 80° set in 1976
Vista 88° (Ties) 88° set in 1976
Santa Ana 59° 58° set in 1965
SJV Min Temp highlights this morning include the following; 28° at Rayo, Lost Hills, Lindsay, Orosi, Buena Vista Lake, 27° at Belridge, 26° at Kern Lake, 25° at Gustine.
SJV Max Temp highlights yesterday afternoon include the following; 75° at Avenal, Sherwood, Terra Bella, 76° at Coalinga, Kern Cyn Powerhouse, 77° at Ducor, Ash Mt, 78° at Democrat, Friant Dam, 79° at Fowler, A.G. Wishon Powerhouse
PRECIPITATION FORECAST
Day 1 – 5 QPF:
At 12Z (9am) Tuesday thru the period Saturday night (Sunday @4am) shows; Fri, Sat, Sun, Mon and Tue DRY.
5DAY ACCUMULATION CHART:
Days 6 & 7 QPF thru next Wed/Thu shows ALL of the West Coast including CA completely DRY
16-Day QPF estimates (from the 12Z GFS) for;
Days 1-8 shows no precip for CA.
Days 9-16 shows CA remaining mostly DRY thru the period, with some light rains in the far northern regions.
Today 12Z 9am FRI morning GFS 384hr, 16Day QPF Chart, showing a mostly DRY CA for the period ending Feb 2.
SATELLITE
Close-up visible Satellite Image of smoke plume over LA.
Water Vapor 4KM Image of the West Coast at 8am Friday, January 17, 2013, shows High Pressure covering CA with extremely dry air that is moving offshore.
Visible Satellite Image of the CA at 8am Friday, January 17, 2013, shows abundantly clear skies over CA with a NE offshore flow pushing the coastal stratus far to the west.
If you have any questions please call or text at any time of day or night.
Comments and suggestions always welcome.
Atmospherics Group International
Dan Gudgel Steve Johnson
559-696-9697 559-433-7316
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