A consultant has told Gavilan College that a community survey supports pushing ahead with a $248 million bond issue a year from now to finance numerous projects, including building a campus in San Benito County.
The survey, conducted by San Francisco-based True North Research, cites three samplings of likely voters in Santa Clara and San Benito counties that indicate support for the bond measure exceeds the 55 percent required for approval.
But the third poll is a squeaker — 55.8 percent of definite yes and probable yes voters favor the measure. The narrow margin could stem from the long memories of San Benito County residents who say they got stiffed by a similar bond proposal in 2004.
Gavilan officials could find the level of distrust among voters unsettling. The district can’t be trusted according 61.5 per cent of poll respondents, who referred to the $108 million bond issue of 2004 that produced no campus buildings in San Benito County. An even gloomier reaction — 59.7 percent said revenue from a 2018 bond election wouldn’t be shared equitably between the counties.
Gavilan College trustees will not act on the potential November 2018 ballot measure until next year.
True North surveyed 610 residents of the two counties by telephone and Internet, in English and Spanish, from Aug. 31 to Sept. 14. In interviews averaging 17 minutes, likely voters evaluated pro and con arguments. More women than men were surveyed.
Seventy percent of the respondents are residents of Santa Clara County, 30 percent from San Benito County – same as the ratio of registered voters in the two counties. Gavilan Community College District covers 2,700 square-miles from south San Jose through San Benito County.
In the first poll, when respondents learned only the broad goals for spending the bond revenue, 64.5 percent said they definitely or probably would vote yes. In opposition were 27 percent who definitely or probably would vote no. The number of unsure voters was an even 8 percent.
Arguments in favor of the bond measure were then introduced: education close to home, fiscal accountability, no money for salaries or pensions, creation of saleable skills for holders of less than a four-year college degree.
Survey takers again asked for a show of hands. This time, 61.7 percent of definite or probable voters favored the bond issue. Definite or probable no votes rose to 29.7 percent and the number of unsure voters dropped to 7.4 percent.
Negative arguments were then introduced, among them: it will require 30 years and $400 million to pay off the debt, the economy isn’t robust enough to meet the challenge, district officials aren’t trustworthy, there is no guarantee that bond revenue would be distributed equitably.
The ensuing third poll found 55.8 percent in favor, 34.7 percent opposed and 8.1 percent unsure.
Contributors to social media, including BenitoLink, have been quick to remind readers of a voter-approved $108 million bond issue in 2004 that purchased land south of Hollister* for a Gavilan satellite campus. Nothing was built, however. The remainder of the revenue was spent on developing a campus in the Coyote Valley.
San Benito County residents thought they would see a campus rise on the 77 acres at Airline Highway and Fairview Road across from the Ridgemark Golf Club. Gavilan officials shake their heads. No construction was ever contemplated, they say.
The True North survey concludes that it’s feasible to move ahead with the bond measure, saying the investment protects the quality of education, assures local access to education and has a 65 percent approval rate.
On issues related to improving the college’s facilities in Santa Clara County and establishing a campus in San Benito County, 84 percent of respondents said it is extremely or very important to protect the quality of education; 81 percent cited creating jobs and improving the local economy; 79 percent like the possibility of reducing traffic; 77 percent cited assuring local access to education and 75 percent cited assuring public safety.
Asked about paying off indebtedness incurred by the sale of bonds, 47 percent of respondents said they could support a property tax of $25 per $100,000 of assessed valuation, 49 percent said $19 and the largest amount, 57 percent, said they could support $12.
*BenitoLink apologizes for this error, which was corrected by editor. Sentence originally stated, “Contributors to social media, including BenitoLink, have been quick to remind readers of a voter-approved $108 million bond issue in 2004 that purchased land in southern San Benito County for a Gavilan satellite campus.”