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The Monterey Bay region, which includes Monterey, Santa Cruz and San Benito Counties, is undergoing a major demographic shift as the proportion of aging non-Hispanic white residents decreases in favor of a younger generation that is more racially diverse, according to Chris Benner, director of the Institute for Social Transformation and the Everett Program for Technology and Social Change at UC Santa Cruz.
In his Nov. 2 keynote address to the State of the Region conference hosted by the Monterey Bay Economic Partnership, Benner said that the “racial generation gap” presents economic challenges in the form of disparities in education, income distribution and housing, and must be countered by investing in education, increasing “good” jobs (particularly in agriculture technology and tourism) and focusing on a more inclusive economy.
For an economy to be inclusive, Benner said, it must be:
- Equitable, with upward mobility for all and equal access to public goods and services
- Participatory, with people able to access markets and technology as workers, business owners and consumers
- Growing, with increased job growth and opportunities and improved material well-being
- Sustainable, with social and economic well-being that increases over time
- Stable, with confidence in the future and economic resilience
Benner said that while population growth within the region has been stable over the past decades, there has been a huge shift in demographics leading to a 43% racial generation gap, which is measured by the proportion of non-Hispanic whites aged 18 years and under (45%) to those 65 years and older (88%). This is the third-highest racial generation gap in the country.
(Unless otherwise indicated, Benner’s statistics cover the tri-county area and are drawn from a five-year data set compiled by the US Census Bureau for the American Community Survey. The survey uses the designations of “non-Hispanic Whites” and “Hispanic/Latino,” which would be self-identified labels.)
In 2021, 58% of the 65 and over population were non-Hispanic White, and 19% were Hispanics/Latinos. Those numbers flip dramatically among the 18 and under population, with only 15% being non-Hispanic White and 48% being Hispanic. The same shift also occurs in all other racial groups combined, rising from 23% in the 65 and over group to 39% in the 18 and under group.
The 65 and older group, he said, are more active in civic leadership, tend to vote more frequently and tend to be highly educated, while the 18 and under group is looked at as the area’s workforce.
The racial generation gap. Image courtesy of Chris Benner. 
Percentage of population over 25 with less than a high school degree. Image courtesy of Chris Benner. 
Voting participation in Monterey County, 2022. Image courtesy of Chris Benner. 
Voters in recent elections, by county. Image courtesy of Chris Benner. 
Chris Benner. Video capture from MBEP event.
“That’s our future economy,” Benner said. “That’s where we need to be paying attention, and when that gap is large, it’s a lot harder for those in leadership positions to see themselves in the future.”
Along with the racial generation gap, there is also a racial educational gap, according to Benner. In the 25-year-old or older population group in the tri-county area, Hispanics/Latinos with less than a high school degree outnumbered non-Hispanic Whites without high school diplomas 10 to one.
In figures Benner quoted from 2021 for non-Hispanic Whites over 25 years old, 4.1% of males and 3.0% of females had less than a high school diploma. Among Hispanics/Latinos over 25, the numbers rose to 43.8% of males and 40.4% of females.
While the figures for Hispanics males and females improved by about 10 points between 2010 and 2021, Benner said that the disparity indicates a need for “very significant” investments in adult education as well as a close examination of the area’s K-12 school system.
There is significant inequality in homeownership as well. Among non-Hispanic Whites, close to 65% owned homes as opposed to Hispanics/Latinos, Blacks, and all other racial groups, each coming in at around 45% in home ownership.
Brenner said that while decision-making in the region should be equal, there is a huge disparity in voter turnout that leaves Hispanics/Latinos with an unequal voice in their futures. Drawing data from the 2022 Monterey County General Election, Benner said that the non-Hispanic turnout was, across the board, much higher than Hispanic turnout, with most areas seeing at least 50% turnout and many areas with over 70% turnout. That election saw Hispanic turnout at 50% and under in most districts, reaching as low as under 30% in places.
Benner said the figures were similar in San Benito and Santa Cruz Counties. He described San Benito County as being similar to Santa Cruz in having a commuter population and similar to Monterey in its dependence on tourism and agriculture.
“One of the huge challenges we have,” he said, “is how to improve wages and working conditions and career opportunities in both tourism and agriculture. We need programs to help people get connected to new jobs and maximize workers’ input and autonomy rather than simply replacing them.”
Benner said that, while improvements have been made in areas of inequality, the disparities were still, in many cases, “alarming” and were a critical indicator of a lack of prosperity that impact future generations.
“There has been a flow of the Hispanic population into stakeholder positions in terms of politics,”he said, “but not necessarily in terms of business, which tends to still be dominated by the non-Hispanic population.”Benner’s study of the growing economic challenges, “Equality, Growth, and Community: What the Nation Can Learn From America’s Metro Areas,” co-authored with Manuel Pastor, is available as a free download from the Growing Together Metro organization. His keynote address to the Monterey Bay Economic Partnership conference is available here.
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