Wine industry caught between generations

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California’s wine industry headed into 2026 with more uncertainty than at any point in the past two decades, according to experts.

The USDA’s final Grape Crush Report, released in April, found that a structural reset is taking place for the state’s wine-grape industry. 

Wine‑grape acreage across the Central Coast, including San Benito County, continues to shift as growers respond to sustained oversupply, changing demand, and multi‑year inventory pressure, according to the Crush Report.

The 2025 wine grape acreage in the state was estimated at 540,000 acres, down from 590,000 acres in 2024, a 6.9% decline, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. 

This reduction reflects ongoing vine removals, including more than 25,000 acres removed primarily from Central California prior to the 2024 season, and more than 21,000 acres removed prior to the 2025 season. That includes 300 acres removed in San Benito County since 2024.

Paicines winemaker Nat Wong said, “I think there are a lot of vines that are still out there that haven’t been reported as removed that are just sitting with zero customers. The vines removed is probably an underestimate in terms of unused grapes in California compared to past years.”

Wong has been a winemaker for 18 years.

“Currently, I manage Calleri and Wheeler vineyards in Tres Pinos, and Folktale’s vineyard in Carmel Valley, for a total of 35 acres,” he said.

He has also managed Siletto Family Vineyard’s company, Circle S Vineyards, with vineyards in Paicines and Tres Pinos.

Wong said the market was depressed after collapsing during the pandemic and that it has not recovered. 

“I farm grapes, and I see the customers reducing,” he said. “From that perspective, you see fewer customers and the current customers buying fewer grapes. Obviously, it’s a pretty close-knit community, so your friends are either closing their wineries, or letting their vines go fallow, or switching careers.”

Wong said that as the wine-grape industry, including in San Benito County, has steadily declined, vineyards are being converted to other crops. He said when Silitto went from farming 110 acres down to 30 acres, it was a “reflection of farming in general, because we have to base our farming on the potential revenue that we get from selling those grapes to customers.”

Beyond Boomers

Ian Brand, a Central Coast winemaker who specializes in overlooked vineyards in Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Cruz counties, and is a San Francisco Chronicle Winemaker of the Year, agrees with Wong, saying the issue is that the California wine business has been built around the Boomer generation’s consumption habits, vacationing habits and disposable income.

“Now, Boomers are drinking less, finding themselves dealing with health issues or, for the hardcore oenophiles, confronting a cellar that will outlast them,” he said. “Most tasting room experiences and aspirational wines that need aging are particularly Boomer coded.”

Brand maintains that the biggest issue is corporate control of California wine and the proliferation of artisan wineries. 

“Something around 85% of all wine produced in California is made by the 15 largest wineries,” he said. “There are over 4,500 wineries in California. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, that’s a 47% increase in the last 15 years. Wine is thought of as an artisan product. There are a lot of wineries in California trying to make artisan wine, likely more than we can support, and there is an entrenched system that maintains the bulk of the revenue flowing to the largest corporations. It’s no secret that once a corporation gets its hands on a brand, the quality declines. Corporate wine generally is not very good. It is almost always uninteresting and a poor value.”

Wong said Boomers have driven revenues for years, and the challenge now is how to attract a new generation of wine drinkers. 

“How do you tap into this new younger generation, the generation that has money now? That’s been a challenge. Drinking wine is not a part of everyday culture in California. We’re a diverse state, but I still don’t think wine is as ingrained in our culture as it used to be.”

He said the industry believes younger people are abstaining from drinking altogether, which is creating a marketing challenge that winemakers must overcome if they are to survive. He said people still like to drink, pointing out how Prohibition in the 1920s didn’t stop people from drinking.

The crux of the problem is that it’s a matter of changing the perception that wine drinking represents a luxurious lifestyle that is inaccessible to the younger generation, he said. 

“There are just so many things that might be impossible for them, like buying a house, for instance, that I think a traditional lifestyle is probably not agreeable to them,” Wong said. “It just doesn’t seem attractive to them. It seems impossible.”

He added: “As we make new wines that people might resonate with that are younger, I think that’s where San Benito can really shine.” 

“There are some historic vineyards in San Benito County,” Brand said. “There are also commodity vineyards that ship truckloads of grapes out of the county to become characterless supermarket wine. I don’t think we should bemoan the removal of commodity vineyards, and I hope as Hollister grows the residents come to love and appreciate the history and bucolic glory of places like the Cienega Valley and Tres Pinos. They are as uncommon as they are beautiful.”

Costco factor

While Brand laments supermarket wine, Wong praises large retail outlets, particularly Costco’s impact on California’s wine industry in general, and San Benito County’s in particular, mainly because he sells wine to the giant retailer.

“They do a good job,” he said. “They have a well-curated selection at any given Costco. It can differ depending on the region that you’re in. Whole Foods does the same. They know who their customers are and who’s going to buy. They represent a good spectrum of prices and wine quality. It’s extremely important because Costco is a place where pretty much everyone shops now.

“You don’t really need to go anywhere else because they have the best wine available there,” he continued. “You go to places in Europe and you see these co-ops that basically are a one-stop shopping for everything from a hardware store to a grocery store, all in one building. But here, everything is typically separated. Costco is one of those places where you can get everything on one trip on one weekend day. Having good quality wine there is key. Exposure is important and they have huge displays of wine.”

‘Bottlenecks’

The skyrocketing cost of everything from rent, food, a tank of gas, and dining out also affects the wine industry and how people socialize, Brand said.

“Service businesses need to change their prices to match their fixed costs, which means a population with a declining disposable income will go out less and will be more frugal when they go out,” he said. “This is compounded by habits acquired during the pandemic. We’re going out less. We have people over less. We socialize in person less. It follows that we are seeing bottlenecks in the traditional wine outlets.”

Wong said San Benito County does not reflect what is happening in the California wine industry. Rather, it is the other way around, because the county is the oldest surviving commercial grape-growing region in the state. 

“It predates Sonoma, predates Napa,” he said.

According to local wineries’ websites, the county includes a mix of historic and modern wineries clustered around Hollister, Cienega Valley and the Paicines foothills. One of the region’s oldest properties is Eden Rift Vineyards, located in Cienega Valley. The winery sits on land first planted with grapes in 1851 by French immigrant Théophile Vaché. In 1883, the property passed to Hollister mayor William Palmtag, whose wines earned recognition in late 19th‑century competitions. Today, Eden Rift focuses on pinot noir and chardonnay, drawing on heritage selections including Mt. Eden, Swan, Calera, Pommard, and Wente clones.

Nearby, DeRose Vineyards has its own deep historical roots. Although the DeRose family established the modern winery in 1988, the site contains some of the oldest surviving vines, including about 40 acres planted before 1900, making some of the vines among the oldest surviving plantings in Cienega Valley, including century and a half negrette and cabernet pfeffer plantings. DeRose also produces zinfandel, cabernet sauvignon, syrah, and viognier.

Across the Gabilan Mountains, Calera Wine Company, founded in 1975 by Josh Jensen, became internationally recognized for pioneering limestone‑soil pinot noirs grown on Mount Harlan. Calera’s portfolio centers on pinot noir.

Closer to Hollister, Léal Vineyards has grown since 1998 into both a winery and a major event venue. Their releases typically include cabernet sauvignon, merlot, syrah, zinfandel, and chardonnay. Guerra Family Cellars, also in Hollister, operates from Pepper Tree Ranch and produces zinfandel, cabernet sauvignon, petite sirah, and red blends.

South of town, Paicines Ranch Vineyard forms part of the historic Paicines Ranch property, known for regenerative agriculture and experimental viticulture. The ranch’s agricultural program documents plantings of grenache, cabernet sauvignon, sangiovese, and several Rhône and Iberian varieties suited to the warmer Paicines climate.

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